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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) is up +0.06 (+0.27%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ24) is up +0.10 (+0.02%). This recovery in sugar prices follows a rally in the Brazilian real, prompting short covering in sugar futures.
Recent data shows that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose +8% year-over-year to 2.443 million metric tons (MMT) in the first half of October, with cumulative output for 2024/25 at 35.591 MMT. Despite this, sugar prices remain under pressure due to beneficial rain forecasts in Brazil and India’s significant sugar surplus, which led Indian mills to request permission to export 2 million MMT. Severe fires in Brazil’s São Paulo state have also caused damage to around 80,000 hectares of sugarcane.
Internationally, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has projected a global sugar deficit of -3.58 MMT for 2024/25, despite an overall decline in global sugar production forecasted to 179.3 MMT, down -1.1% from the previous year.
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