March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by 0.04 cents (+0.27%) today, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) fell by 0.50 cents (-0.12%). The fluctuations in sugar prices come in light of a recent rally in the Brazilian real, which reached a 1.5-month high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazil, the largest sugar producer.
Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT), while the Indian Sugar Mill Association reported a 22% rise in India’s 2025-26 sugar output to 15.9 MMT. The global sugar surplus forecast has also increased, with Covrig Analytics raising its estimate for the 2025/26 surplus to 4.7 MMT, exacerbated by anticipated higher outputs in Brazil and India.
Further forecasting indicates that global sugar production may reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025-26, according to the USDA. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production is projected to rise to 44.7 MMT, while India’s output may reach 35.25 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices amid the anticipated increase in global supply.
