Sugar prices have risen to one-month highs as of Tuesday, with July NY world sugar #11 closing up by 0.08 cents (+0.52%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 increasing by 5.70 cents (+1.28%). This upward trend is largely attributed to a strong Brazilian real, which reached a 2.25-year high against the dollar, discouraging exports from Brazil’s sugar producers. Additionally, concerns over future global sugar supplies have intensified.
Green Pool Commodity Specialists recently increased their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to 4.30 million metric tons (MMT) from 1.66 MMT, while Brazil’s sugar production is projected to decline by 0.5% to 43.95 MMT for the same period, according to Conab. Reports show Brazil’s mills are directing more resources toward ethanol production, expecting a 7.2% rise in ethanol output, which is further tightening sugar supplies.
Ongoing supply disruptions, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—affecting around 6% of the world’s sugar trade—are also feeding concerns in the market. The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with declining sugar output noted in Brazil against potential increases from India and Thailand.
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