As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) has increased by +0.20 (+1.24%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is up by +7.90 (+1.70%). This recovery follows early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real, which has surged to an 8-1/4 month high against the dollar, impacting export sales from Brazil’s sugar producers.
The USDA projected on May 22 that global sugar production for 2025/26 will rise +4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 million metric tons, resulting in a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons, up 7.5% year-over-year. Simultaneously, India’s projected sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to climb +19% year-over-year to 35 million metric tons, influenced by increased cane acreage and favorable monsoon forecasts.
Furthermore, Brazil’s sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to increase +2.3% year-over-year to 44.7 million metric tons, while Thailand’s is projected to rise +14% year-over-year to 10 million metric tons. The International Sugar Organization has updated its forecast for the 2024/25 global sugar deficit to a 9-year high of -5.47 million metric tons, reflecting a tightening market following a previous surplus.
