As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by +0.22 (+1.48%) to reach a two-week high, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) increased by +4.30 (+1.01%). The rally is attributed to a stronger Brazilian real, reaching a one-week high against the dollar, which decreases export sales from Brazil’s sugar producers.
Recent data from the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) indicated a significant rise in sugar production, with output from October to November up +43% year-over-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT). In Brazil, the crop forecasting agency Conab upped its 2025/26 sugar production estimate from 44.5 MMT to 45 MMT, while the Center-South sugar output rose by +8.7% year-over-year to 983 MMT in early November. The International Sugar Organization has projected a 2025-26 surplus of 1.625 million MT, driven by higher production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
Favorable monsoon rains in India have improved expectations for sugar exports, potentially impacting global prices. The USDA forecasts a record global sugar production increase of +4.7% year-over-year to 189.318 MMT for 2025-26, with India’s production predicted to rise by 25% to 35.3 MMT, thanks to enhanced acreage and weather conditions.
