As of today, July arabica coffee (KCN26) has risen by 3.11%, up +9.00, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) has increased by 3.19%, up +113. The surge in coffee prices is attributed to concerns over a potential US-Iran war, which could restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby disrupting global coffee supplies.
Additionally, the Brazilian real has hit a two-year high against the dollar, making Brazilian coffee exports less competitive. Meanwhile, robusta coffee inventories on ICE have fallen to a 16-month low of 3,755 lots. Conversely, Vietnam’s coffee exports for early 2026 increased by 14% year-over-year, with expectations of a 6% rise in production, potentially putting downward pressure on robusta prices.
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