**Coffee Prices Rise Amid Supply Tightness and Currency Fluctuations**
On Friday, May arabica coffee closed at $299.60, rising by $6.40 (+2.18%), while May ICE robusta coffee increased by $14 (+0.42%). This surge marks a one-week high for arabica and arises from a strengthening Brazilian real, which reached a two-year high against the dollar, impacting export sales from Brazil.
Robusta coffee supplies are tightening, with ICE inventories dropping to a 1.25-year low of 3,977 lots, while arabica inventories rose to a 6.25-month high of 585,621 bags as of March 18. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global shipping, further tightening supply and raising costs for coffee importers. In Brazil, insufficient rainfall, reported at only 47% of historical averages, continues to support coffee prices despite forecasts indicating a record Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, leading to a projected global surplus of 10 million bags.
