**Coffee Prices Rise on Brazilian Currency Strength**
As of today, July arabica coffee (KCN25) has increased by $0.35 (0.10%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is up by $3 (0.07%). The rise is attributed to the Brazilian real hitting an eight-month high against the U.S. dollar, which is affecting export dynamics in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently 13.7% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s rate of 13.6%. Meanwhile, favorable weather conditions have improved crop prospects, with significant rainfall reported in Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-producing region. Key estimates for the 2025/26 production indicate Brazil will produce 65 million bags, marking a slight increase from the previous year, while Vietnam is expected to boost robusta production to 31 million bags.
Despite these positive production forecasts, demand concerns persist; major companies like Starbucks and Hershey have indicated that U.S. tariffs could impact pricing and sales volumes. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee exports have seen a decline of 28% year-over-year in April, further complicating the market landscape.
