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As of today, March arabica coffee (KCH26) has decreased by 1.34% to $5.10, while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) saw a decline of 0.26% to $11.00. This downward trend is driven by a weaker Brazilian real, which has fallen to a 7-week low, encouraging more exports from Brazil’s coffee producers.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its total coffee production estimate for 2025 by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, contributing to bearish sentiment in the market. Additionally, robusta coffee prices are pressured by increasing coffee exports from Vietnam, which are up 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons.
US ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, while robusta inventories fell to an 11.25-month low of 4,049 lots, highlighting tightening supplies amidst changing market dynamics. Overall, the USDA projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to increase by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags.
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