May arabica coffee (KCK26) rose by 1.16%, up +3.40 today, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) increased by 2.25%, up +77. Prices surged due to a rally in the Brazilian real, which reached a 1.5-week high, prompting short covering in coffee futures and restricting exports from Brazilian producers.
Robusta supplies are tightening, with ICE robusta inventories falling to a 3.5-month low of 4,095 lots. Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping, causing increased costs for coffee importers and raising global prices. Brazil’s coffee-growing region, Minas Gerais, reported below-average rainfall of only 11.7 mm last week, 47% of the historical average, further affecting supply.
Brazil’s projected coffee crop for 2026/27 is set to hit a record 75.9 million bags, a 15.5% increase year-over-year, according to Marex Group Plc. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports for early 2026 rose by 14% year-over-year to 366,000 MT, where robusta production is expected to reach a four-year high.
