September arabica coffee (KCU25) fell by 1.40 (-0.46%) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) declined by 11 (-0.30%) today. Coffee prices are dropping due to abundant rainfall in Brazil, which alleviates dryness concerns for coffee crops. Brazil’s largest arabica-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 5 mm of rain during the week ending June 28, which is 714% of the historical average.
According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecasted to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags. Additionally, Brazil’s May green coffee exports decreased by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year has declined by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the lowest yield in four years. The USDA also projected world coffee production in 2025/26 to increase by 2.5% year-over-year to a record 178.68 million bags, comprising a 1.7% drop in arabica production and a 7.9% increase in robusta output.
