“`html
On June 21, 2023, September arabica coffee prices rose by +3.40% to $10.70 and July ICE robusta coffee prices increased by +2.91% to $113. This price surge follows a report from Somar Meteorologia indicating that Brazil’s major arabica coffee region, Minas Gerais, experienced no rainfall during the week, contributing to short covering in coffee futures.
As of June 11, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 35% complete, slightly trailing last year’s 37% but consistent with the five-year average. Reported figures show that 49% of the robusta and 26% of the arabica harvests were finished. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 36% year-over-year in May to 2.8 million bags, affecting supply dynamics.
The USDA projects Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season to increase by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s robusta output is expected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags. However, Vietnam’s current production has declined by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought.
“`
