Coffee prices declined on Wednesday, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) closing down 1.85 cents (-0.68%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) down 17 cents (-0.51%). The dip in prices comes as expectations rise for a larger Brazilian coffee crop, exacerbated by a projected production increase of 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags in 2026/27.
Robusta pricing has reached a one-month low, primarily influenced by soaring coffee exports from Vietnam. The National Statistics Office reported a 15.8% year-on-year rise in Vietnam’s coffee exports for January through April 2026, totaling 810,000 metric tons. Conversely, Brazil experienced a slight decline in green coffee exports, which fell 1.3% year-on-year to 2.76 million bags in April.
Market dynamics are further complicated by global supply disruptions due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inflated shipping and operational costs for coffee importers. ICE robusta inventories recently dipped to a two-year low, while arabica inventories reached a 2.75-month low, reflecting ongoing supply tensions amid fluctuating demand.
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