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As of today, July arabica coffee prices dropped by -3.90 (-1.11%) to a one-week low, while July ICE robusta coffee decreased by -4 (-0.09%). This decline is attributed to Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest, which is currently 13.7% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s figure of 13.6%. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative, the largest in the country, is spearheading this harvest, which has been bolstered by above-normal rainfall easing dryness concerns.
Further pressures for coffee prices include increased coffee production forecasts by the USDA. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee output is projected to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is expected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags. In contrast, robusta coffee inventories reported a three-week low of 5,184 lots, sparking some recovery amid signs of tighter supplies.
Lastly, demand concerns have been amplified by statements from major importers such as Starbucks and Hershey, warning that the US 10% tariff on imports will likely elevate prices and hamper sales volumes. Brazil’s May green coffee exports also fell significantly, dropping 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags.
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