On Thursday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) fell by 1.61% to close at -5.25, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) decreased by 2.39%, dropping -93. Coffee prices are declining due to dry weather forecasts in Brazil, which are expected to hasten the coffee harvest. Notably, no rain was reported in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary arabica region, during the week ending August 2.
As of July 31, the coffee harvest among Cooxupe co-op members was 67.3% complete, lagging behind last year’s 74.2%. The USDA forecasts a 6% increase in global coffee output for the 2026-27 season, predicting a record 189.7 million bags, with Brazil’s production projected to rise by 14% year-over-year. In contrast, robusta inventories at ICE reached a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22, though they slightly decreased to 4,206 lots by Wednesday.
Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2026 rose 21.1% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons, and production is expected to hit a four-year high of 1.76 MMT. The emergence of the El Niño weather pattern raises concerns about potential crop impacts in Brazil, signaling possible future volatility in coffee prices.
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