On Thursday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed at $0.80 lower (-0.29%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) rose by $0.57 (+1.58%). This mixed performance follows a cold front in Brazil that has brought renewed rains, delaying the coffee harvest and raising concerns about crop quality.
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 385,191 bags, while robusta inventories saw a temporary increase, reaching a 2.25-month high of 4,032 lots. Concerns about a potential El Niño weather pattern have led to speculation that Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop could be negatively impacted, with the NOAA estimating a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year.
In terms of global coffee production, the USDA’s forecasts indicate a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop at 71.9 million bags, despite recent market fluctuations. Vietnam’s coffee exports have increased significantly, with a 7.9% rise reported in early June. Overall, global coffee exports for the current marketing year are projected to decline slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
