On Friday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down -8.65 cents (-3.15%) at a one-week low, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) fell -78 cents (-2.19%). The decline follows updated weather forecasts indicating dry conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions next week, allowing the delayed coffee harvest to resume after heavy rains.
Brazil’s projected coffee harvest for 2026/27 is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags, according to the Coffee Trading Academy. Additionally, global coffee supplies appear to be improving, with StoneX predicting a record Brazilian coffee crop, shifting the 2026 global coffee surplus to 10 million bags from 1.8 million in 2025. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8% year-on-year for the first four months of 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons, adding bearish pressure on robusta prices.
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