As of today, July arabica coffee (KCN26) is down 0.90 (-0.37%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) is up 20 (+0.60%). The price fluctuations are attributed to Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest and a weakened Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, potentially encouraging export sales from Brazilian coffee producers.
Recent forecasts indicate a record Brazil coffee crop for 2026/27 expected to reach 71.9 million bags, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Additionally, global arabica coffee surplus estimates have risen to 9.5 million bags from 7 million bags previously. Concurrently, Vietnam has reported a 7.9% increase in coffee exports for the first five months of 2026, totaling 922,000 metric tons.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags, while robusta inventories stand at 3,732 lots. Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern, which could negatively impact Brazil’s coffee crop next year, add an element of uncertainty. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently estimates an 82% likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting through the end of the year.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
