On Tuesday, July arabica coffee closed down 1.80% at -$6.50, while July ICE robusta coffee fell 2.50%, down -$113. The decline in prices was attributed to Brazil’s coffee harvest pressures, as the Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that their members’ harvest was 13.7% complete as of the same day, marginally ahead of 13.6% from the previous year.
Recent rainfall in Brazil, averaging 23.4 mm—207% of the historical norm for this time of year—has eased dryness concerns, contributing to declining coffee prices. Additionally, production forecasts indicate Brazil’s coffee output for the 2025/26 cycle might reach 65 million bags, up 0.5% year-over-year, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
ICE-monitored coffee inventories have also surged, with robusta coffee inventories reaching a near nine-month high of 5,438 lots as of May 30. Demand concerns are impacting market sentiments, particularly as U.S. importers express worries over the economic impact of a 10% tariff on imports, potentially dampening sales volumes.
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