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Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, has reduced its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, impacting coffee prices. December arabica coffee (KCZ25) rose by 1.42% (+5.30), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) increased by 0.36% (+16). The total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate has also been cut by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.
Additionally, the International Coffee Organization reported a 1.6% year-over-year decline in global coffee exports for July, totaling 11.6 million bags. In the U.S., rising tariffs on Brazilian coffee have led buyers to postpone new contracts, tightening supply in a market where a third of unroasted coffee is sourced from Brazil.
In related news, Brazil’s Trade Ministry indicated that July unroasted coffee exports decreased by 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 MT. Furthermore, Vietnam’s coffee production is projected to be down 20% year-over-year to 1.472 million metric tons for the 2023/24 crop year.
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