May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed at $0.75 higher (+0.25%) on Monday, reaching a two-week high, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose $27 (+0.81%). This uptick comes as Brazil’s coffee-growing region Minas Gerais recorded only 4.2 mm of rainfall last week, only 20% of the historical average, raising concerns about yields.
The Brazilian real strengthened to a two-year high against the dollar, impacting export sales as robusta inventories hit a 1.25-year low at 3,955 lots. Meanwhile, arabica inventories rose to a 6.25-month high of 585,621 bags. Reports indicate a projected record Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, up 15.5% year-on-year, despite a 31% drop in March exports year-over-year.
Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% year-over-year to 585,000 MT for early 2026, contributing to downward pressure on robusta prices as global coffee supplies tighten amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
