**Coffee Prices Show Divergent Trends Amid Supply Changes**
As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) is down by 1.40 cents (-0.47%), reaching a 1.5-week low, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) is up by 37 cents (+1.06%). Marex Group Plc has projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop at 75.9 million bags, marking a 15.5% year-over-year increase. In contrast, robusta prices are buoyed by tightening supplies, with inventories at a 3.5-month low of 4,093 lots.
Key factors influencing coffee prices include a strengthening Brazilian real, which has discouraged exports, and recent weather reports indicating below-normal rainfall in Brazil’s top coffee-growing region, Minas Gerais, receiving only 47% of the historical average last week. The Strait of Hormuz closure is further disrupting global shipping, raising costs for coffee importers. Notably, Brazil’s coffee exports for February plummeted by 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, signaling market shifts.
