On Wednesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed up +1.00 (+0.29%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) rose +137 (+3.48%). This increase in coffee prices coincided with a reported -18.4% decline in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, which fell to 2.86 million bags. Notably, robusta coffee exports from Brazil plummeted -61% year-over-year to just 222,147 bags.
Forecasts of rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions—expected to alleviate dry conditions—have further supported coffee prices. Brazil’s coffee production estimate for 2025 was raised by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, according to Conab, while Vietnam’s coffee exports are projected to climb by +17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, exerting downward pressure on prices.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories recently recovered to a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags after hitting a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20. Robust inventory levels and forecasts of increased Vietnamese production could create mixed signals for coffee prices moving forward.
