As of today, October NY world sugar #11 is down -0.09 (-0.55%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 is down -4.50 (-0.96%). Sugar prices have hit five-week lows due to stronger sugar production in Brazil, with a +15% year-on-year increase in Brazil’s Center-South sugar output reported by Unica, reaching 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the first half of July.
India’s prospects for increased sugar exports are also bearish for prices; the Indian Meteorological Department reports cumulative monsoon rain at 500.8 mm, 4% above normal. Additionally, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects a 19% year-on-year rise in India’s sugar production for 2025/26 to 35 MMT, following a decline to a five-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25.
Furthermore, rising sugar imports from China increased by 1,435% to 420,000 MT in June, and Coca-Cola’s switch to cane sugar in U.S. beverages could boost consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT. However, projections by the USDA suggest a global sugar production increase of +4.7% year-on-year for the 2025/26 season, reaching 189.318 MMT.
