Sugar prices are rising, with July NY world sugar #11 up 2.51% to $15.11 and August London ICE white sugar #5 rising 2.06% to $446.90. The increase follows Brazil’s announcement of new fuel subsidies aimed at alleviating the impact of the Iran war, potentially driving sugar mills to focus more on ethanol production.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a decline in global sugar production for the 2026/27 season, falling by 1.15% year-over-year to 180 million metric tons (MMT), resulting in a global deficit of 262,000 MT. Additionally, India’s four-month ban on sugar exports, effective until September 30, is further tightening the supply. Last week, Citigroup forecasted Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 39.5 MMT, significantly below Conab’s estimate of 43.95 MMT, indicating a shift toward ethanol production due to rising gasoline prices.
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