**Coffee Prices Decline Amid Improved Crop Outlook**
On Tuesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 1.88%, falling by $5.65, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) dropped 2.37%, a decrease of $0.91. This decline follows increased rainfall in Brazil, as Somar Meteorologia reported 72.6 mm of precipitation in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing area, significantly alleviating concerns over dry conditions.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, anticipates a 17.2% year-over-year increase in 2026 coffee production, expected to reach a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica production is projected to rise 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production will increase 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 38.3% year-over-year in January, further pressuring robusta prices, though reduced Colombian coffee supplies may offer some support to market dynamics.
