Coffee prices declined on Monday, with May arabica coffee (KCK26) closing down by 2.75 cents (-0.89%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) falling by 27 cents (-0.74%). This decrease was attributed to favorable growing conditions in Brazil, where beneficial soil moisture and current dry conditions aid cherry ripening. Climatempo reported that rain is expected to return to Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week.
Last week, arabica and robusta coffee prices had risen, peaking due to disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is tightening global coffee supplies. Robust coffee stocks at ICE fell to a two-month low of 4,257 lots, while ICE-monitored arabica inventories reached a 5.75-month high of 585,621 bags. Brazil’s latest production estimate for the 2026/27 crop was raised to a record 75.3 million bags, which raises bearish sentiment in the market.
Vietnam’s coffee exports also impact market dynamics, with January-February 2026 exports rising by 14% year-over-year to 366,000 MT. The International Coffee Organization noted a slight global export decline of 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags within the current marketing year. Additionally, USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected world coffee production will grow to a record 178.848 million bags for the 2025/26 season.
