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March arabica coffee (KCH26) is down by 10.45 points (-2.70%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) is down by 47 points (-1.03%) as of today. The decline is attributed to forecasts of substantial rains in Brazil, which are expected to benefit coffee crop development.
Current coffee prices have been impacted by U.S. tariffs, which led to a 52% drop in Brazilian coffee imports from August to October, totaling 983,970 bags. Brazilian coffee inventories monitored by ICE fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags for arabica and a 4-month low of 5,648 lots for robusta. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October 2025 rose by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons.
Predictions for Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026/27 marketing year are set at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29%. Contrarily, global coffee exports for the current marketing year have declined by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.
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