March arabica coffee futures (KCH26) fell by 3.65% to $12.60, marking a 5.5-month low, while March robusta coffee (RMH26) declined 1.77%, closing down $74. This decline is attributed to steady rainfall forecasts in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary coffee-growing region, expected over the next week.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, reported a 17.5% increase in coffee exports for the 2025 year, totaling 1.58 million metric tons, with production projected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons. These increases in supply are pressuring global coffee prices.
Furthermore, ICE arabica inventories have seen a recent recovery, reaching a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags, while robusta inventories also rose to a 1.75-month high. Conversely, Brazil’s coffee exports in December fell 18.4% year-over-year to 2.86 million bags, which offers some support for prices amid signs of tightening global supplies. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% decrease in global coffee exports for the marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
