As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) is down by $3.05 (-0.98%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) is up by $24 (+0.67%). Arabica prices are pressured by expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop, with Marex Group projecting a production of 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, surpassing previous estimates. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories have fallen to a 3.25-month low of 4,127 lots, providing some support for robusta prices.
Recent data indicates that Brazil’s February coffee exports dropped by 27% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 17.4% year-on-year decline in February coffee exports to 142,000 MT. Rising inventories of arabica coffee, which reached a six-month high of 585,621 bags, alongside abundant rains easing crop concerns, have added downward pressure to arabica prices.
In related news, Vietnam reported a 14% increase in coffee exports for January-February 2026, totaling 366,000 MT, while production is projected to reach a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season. Overall global coffee production is expected to hit a record 180 million bags in 2026/27, a rise of 8 million bags from the previous year.
