May arabica coffee prices (KCK26) fell by 2.94%, decreasing by -8.70 to reach current levels, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) dropped by 3.71% with a decline of -137. This downturn in coffee prices is attributed to favorable weather forecasts in Brazil, where rains are predicted in key coffee-growing regions.
As of November 18, ICE arabica inventories had decreased to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags; however, recent data shows that they have rebounded to 564,626 bags, reaching a 5-month high. In contrast, robusta inventories slightly decreased to 4,563 lots from 4,721 lots recorded on March 3. Additionally, Brazil’s green coffee exports in February experienced a year-on-year decline of 27%, with total coffee exports dropping 17.4% to 142,000 metric tons, according to Brazil’s Trade Ministry.
Global coffee production is projected to hit record levels, with forecasts indicating an increase to 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, an 8 million bag rise from the previous year. In Brazil, production is estimated to reach 66.2 million bags in 2026, marking a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with arabica production alone rising by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags.
