December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up 1.25 cents (+0.43%) on Wednesday, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) rose 35 cents (+1.03%). This increase follows a 3-week high for arabica and a 1-month high for robusta, largely due to concerns over dry conditions in Brazil that could impact the upcoming 2026/27 coffee crop. Meteorologists predict limited rainfall in the Minas Gerais region, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing area, affecting flowering stages.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center anticipates strong El Niño conditions that may lead to weather disruptions affecting coffee production. Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) indicates a record global coffee crop of 183.6 million bags for 2025/26, with a projected surplus of 3 million bags. Notably, Brazil’s coffee exports surged 31% year-over-year in August to 4.155 million bags, further complicating the price landscape amid rising global supplies. Countering these bullish trends, recent inventory shifts show arabica stocks at a 27-year low while robusta inventories rose to a 10-month high.
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