Applied Materials is set to report its fiscal third-quarter results on Thursday, with management projecting revenues of $8.95 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP earnings of $3.36 per share, plus or minus 20 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $9 billion, signifying a year-over-year growth of 23.3%, while earnings are expected to show a 36.3% increase from $2.48 to $3.38 per share.
Despite strong financial performance, including a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of over 6%, Applied Materials’ stock has fallen approximately 25% from its year-to-date high of $739.67, currently trading around $550. Key factors include profit-taking amidst high valuations, bearish sentiment following notable short positions, and significant revenue headwinds from export restrictions affecting sales, especially in China.
The upcoming guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter will be crucial in determining if AI-driven demand can offset declining revenue from China, which has dropped from nearly 40% to approximately 25-30% due to U.S. policy changes. Analysts are closely watching for any indication that these trends are stabilizing or worsening.
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