Guess Stock Set to Report Disappointing Q1 Earnings on May 29, 2025
Projected Earnings and Revenue
Guess Stock (NYSE: GES) is set to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Analysts estimate a loss of -69 cents per share on revenue of $631 million. In comparison, the previous year’s figures were -24 cents per share and $592 million in revenue. Historically, Guess has seen its stock rise 63% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median increase of 10.3% and a peak rise of 26%.
Operational Challenges
The company faces hurdles in its Americas segment, including high inventory levels and significant markdowns, impacting profitability. Market volatility, driven by tariff policies and escalating trade tensions, has added pressure this year. Although the acquisition of Rag & Bone has contributed to revenue, profits have suffered substantially. Guess is revising its strategy in China, shifting from direct operations to a potential partnership with a local firm. In North America, the company plans to close around 20 underperforming stores to streamline its retail operations.
Currently, Guess has a market capitalization of $574 million. Over the past year, its revenue totaled $3.0 billion, operationally profitable with operating profits of $173 million and net income of $60 million.
Insights for Traders
For event-driven traders, historical patterns may provide an advantage in positioning for earnings or responding to post-release moves. If lower volatility is desired, the Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, achieving returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
One-Day Post-Earnings Return History
In the last five years, Guess recorded 19 earnings data points: 12 showed positive returns while 7 were negative, yielding a 63% positive return rate. This rate drops to 55% when looking at the last three years. The median of positive returns stands at 10%, while negative returns averaged -5.2%.
Correlation of Earnings Returns
Traders may find strategies involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns useful. If 1D returns positively correlate with 5D returns, a long position may be advisable following a positive 1D post-earnings return.
Peer Influence on Stock Reaction
Peer performance often influences post-earnings stock reactions. The market may begin pricing in expectations before Guess announces its earnings. Historical data compares Guess’s stock performance to that of peers who reported earnings shortly before it.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
