The Green Rush in the Sunshine State
Florida’s legal cannabis sales hit a significant milestone with an estimated $2.6 billion in 2023. This landmark figure reflects a per capita consumption of about $118 based on the total population, or $145 based on the adult population. The Sunshine State continues to be a crucial battleground for the burgeoning legal cannabis market.
Florida’s Booming Medical Cannabis Market
Florida boasts a highly developed medical cannabis market, with a staggering 871,459 registered active medical cannabis patients as of January 26, 2024. This figure amounts to 4.9% of the state’s over-18-year-old population, far exceeding Pennsylvania’s approximately 4.0%. The Sunshine State’s medical cannabis landscape is indeed flourishing.
A Competitive Landscape
Examining the top ten competitors in Florida, the graph illuminates the number of open dispensaries held by each player, with these companies accounting for approximately 85% of the total dispensary count. Notably, Green Thumb and Cannabist do not feature in the top ten, while significant MSOs like Cresco, TerrAscend, and Ascend have no presence in Florida.
The Road Ahead for Adult Rec Use
Florida’s Governor DeSantis remains optimistic about the prospects of adult recreational use in the state. However, the journey ahead is fraught with challenges, as the state attorney general continues to contest the initiative’s wording and legality under the Florida Constitution. This tug of war sets the stage for a gripping battle as the state navigates the path toward legalization.
The Reality Check
The number of active patients per dispensary in Florida has decreased by approximately 8% over the last year amid a 21% surge in dispensary locations. With the state potentially being overstored, the long-awaited shift towards adult recreational use may introduce a new set of dynamics and challenges for industry players to navigate.
Investment Outlook
Industry analysts anticipate that a transition to adult recreational use could at least double Florida’s legal cannabis revenues. However, achieving this ambitious goal would require a per capita consumption of approximately $234, significantly higher than that of Illinois or Massachusetts. The Sunshine State’s bold bet on the burgeoning market may not yield the anticipated windfall.
Insights from Viridian Capital
The top companies in Florida have placed a massive bet on the state, with it accounting for more than half of their combined national dispensary portfolios. While Florida presents several advantages, the required vertical integration serves to limit the downside risk for new entrants. Yet, the outcome remains far from certain, with the market’s future poised on a knife’s edge.
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Deals by Industry Sector (To track the flow of capital and M&A Deals by one of 12 Sectors – from Cultivation to Brands to Software)
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Deal Structure (Equity/Debt for Capital Raises, Cash/Stock/Earnout for M&A) Status of the company announcing the transaction (Public vs. Private)
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Principals to the Transaction (Issuer/Investor/Lender/Acquirer) Key deal terms (Pricing and Valuation)
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Key Deal Terms (Deal Size, Valuation, Pricing, Warrants, Cost of Capital)
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Deals by Location of Issuer/Buyer/Seller (To Track the Flow of Capital and M&A Deals by State and Country)
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Credit Ratings (Leverage and Liquidity Ratios)
The cannabis landscape in Florida, with its booming sales and investment trends, presents an intriguing dichotomy of promise and uncertainty for industry players and investors to navigate.
The preceding article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.
