A Bullish Week for Cattle
Following a brief cooldown, the live cattle market sprung back to life, gaining $1.37 to $1.92 by midday on Friday. Feeders, not to be outdone, surged by as much as $3. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw 48 contracts retendered for February cattle futures deliveries. Despite limited cash trade activity, prices hovered around the $180 mark in the week leading up to Thursday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index mirrored the positive trend, climbing by $1.83 to hit $244.49.
Analysts’ Predictions and Insights
Market analysts are eagerly awaiting the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cattle on Feed report, expecting February’s count to edge 0.1% above the same time last year, averaging around 11.716 million head excluding potential revisions. Projections point towards a substantial 11.6% drop in placements compared to last year, with January marketings likely to dip by 0.2% year-over-year, indicating a promising outlook for the industry.
Export Sales and Beef Market Dynamics
The recent weekly Export Sales report revealed that 12.6 thousand metric tons (MT) of beef were exported in the week ending on 2/15, showing a 24% decline from the previous week and less than half the volume from the same time last year. Beef shipments amounted to 15.7k MT, bringing the season’s total to 101.5k MT. Meanwhile, the USDA’s Boxed Beef prices showed a positive trend with Choice at $301.21 cwt. and Select at $287.42 cwt., representing gains of $1.42 and $1.61, respectively.
Market Snapshot and Future Prospects
Current prices for February 2024 Cattle stand at $185.425, up $1.925 from previous figures. Similarly, April 2024 Cattle and June 2024 Cattle are priced at $188.150 and $183.975, reflecting increases of $1.600 and $1.275, respectively.
This surge is also evident in the feeder cattle segment, with March 2024 Feeder Cattle at $254.250 (up $2.200) and April 2024 Feeder Cattle at $259.525 (up $2.825).
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
