On Tuesday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed at +85 (+1.95%) and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed at +13 (+0.42%). This price increase comes as the U.S. dollar index fell to a nearly 4-year low, prompting a short covering in cocoa futures, although gains in London were muted by a strong British pound at a 4.25-year high.
In the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through January 25, 2026), Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has shipped 1.20 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa, a decrease of 3.2% from 1.24 MMT at the same time last year. Global cocoa stocks rose 4.2% year-over-year to 1.1 MMT, and demand has decreased significantly, exemplified by Barry Callebaut AG’s 22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30.
Recorded cocoa grindings show a worrying trend, with Q4 European grindings down 8.3% year-over-year to 304,470 MT, the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years, while Q4 Asian grindings fell 4.8% to 197,022 MT. Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are anticipated to boost the cocoa harvest, with the latest cocoa pod count 7% above the five-year average. However, Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, reported a 7% year-over-year decrease in November cocoa exports to 35,203 MT, contributing to a tightening global supply outlook.
