On Friday, July ICE NY cocoa closed down 5.53% at -245, while July ICE London cocoa fell 5.46% at -180, amid concerns over an abundant supply, which saw ICE cocoa inventories rise to a 20.5-month high of 2,668,548 bags. The U.S. NOAA predicts a 61% chance of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, which could negatively impact cocoa production in West Africa.
Cocoa demand showed signs of weakness, with North American Q1 cocoa grindings falling 3.8% year-on-year to 106,087 MT and European grindings down 7.8% year-on-year to 325,895 MT, the lowest for a Q1 in 17 years. Conversely, Asian cocoa grindings rose 5.2% year-on-year to 223,503 MT. Additionally, Nigeria’s cocoa exports fell 4.6% year-on-year to 40,110 MT as forecasts for the 2025/26 crop indicate an 11% drop in production.
Despite these challenges, recent reports indicate stable cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast, with shipments totaling 1.54 MMT, up 0.7% from last year. However, Ghana has reduced the official price paid to farmers by nearly 30%, reflecting pressures on the market.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
