March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed down $12 (-0.29%) on Friday, while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) fell $16 (-0.52%). This decline follows a drop to a 2.25-year low for New York cocoa and a 2.5-year low for London cocoa, driven by a combination of abundant global supplies and weak demand. StoneX has projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 season.
Barry Callebaut AG reported a 22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, attributed to lackluster market demand. Concurrently, the European Cocoa Association noted a significant 8.3% year-over-year drop in Q4 European cocoa grindings, marking the lowest total in 12 years. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories reached a 1.5-year high of 2,966,214 bags.
In the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, farmers have shipped 1.23 million MT of cocoa since the current marketing year began, a 4.7% decrease from the previous year. Favorable growing conditions are expected to enhance the upcoming harvest, with the latest cocoa pod count reported 7% above the five-year average. However, decreased exports from Nigeria, down 7% year-over-year in November, are projected to provide some support for prices.
