Cocoa prices on the ICE market fell today, with September NY cocoa (CCU26) down 0.37% to $5,858 and September London cocoa #7 (CAU26) down 0.93% to $4,266. The decline follows a surge of over 15% in the past three trading sessions, attributed to technical selling and concerns over production issues, particularly in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa supplier, which may see production drop to 450,000-550,000 metric tons in 2026/27 from 750,000 metric tons for 2025/26.
In contrast, global supplies appear strong, as evidenced by Ivory Coast exports, which rose 20% to 2.11 million metric tons, and a 30% year-over-year increase in Nigerian cocoa exports to 18,922 metric tons. However, rising cocoa inventories reached a two-year high of 3,375,119 bags last Tuesday, adding pressure on prices. Positive signs from North American and Asian markets, with North American grindings up 7.7% and Asian grindings up 25%, provide some support, but the overall outlook for the cocoa market remains cautious due to weather-related concerns, particularly the anticipated impact of an El Niño pattern.
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