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On December 1, 2023, cocoa prices experienced a decline, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) falling by $133 (-1.89%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) dropping by $48 (-0.98%). The drop was influenced by beneficial rains in the Ivory Coast that improved crop outlooks, causing NY cocoa to reach a 10.75-month low and London cocoa a 2.25-month low earlier in the week.
According to Mondelez, the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% higher than the five-year average, with farmers expecting a quality harvest next month. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have declined to a 4.75-month low of 1,991,715 bags. Conversely, Nigeria reported a 22% year-over-year drop in July cocoa exports to 13,579 metric tons, further tightening supply.
As of May 30, the International Cocoa Organization projected a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023/24 period, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years. In 2024/25, a surplus of 142,000 metric tons is anticipated, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-over-year to 4.84 million metric tons.
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