On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down by 27 points (-0.51%), following a significant decline of 4.98% the previous day, reaching a two-month low amidst concerns over abundant supplies. The closing inventory on ICE reached a two-year high of 3,308,066 bags.
Data from the Ivory Coast indicated a 21% increase in cocoa shipments this marketing year, totaling 2.10 million metric tons (MMT) since October 1, 2025, while Nigeria reported a 30% year-over-year rise in June cocoa exports to 18,922 MT. Despite a mixed demand outlook, with European cocoa grindings falling 4.6% in Q2, North American grindings increased by 7.7% to 109,659 MT, and Asian demand rose by 25% to 224,646 MT.
Looking ahead, Transgraph Consulting projects a decrease in the global cocoa surplus from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026 to 80,000 MT in 2026-2027, largely due to anticipated declines in production. Nigeria’s cocoa production for 2025-26 is forecast to decrease by 11% to 305,000 MT, adding further support to cocoa prices amidst looming weather concerns from an expected strong El Niño event.
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