On Tuesday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed at $5,978 per metric ton, up +122 (+2.08%), while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed at $4,337, up +128 (+3.02%). This rally follows Citigroup’s revision of its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate from 134,000 MT to 79,000 MT, signaling a tightening supply.
Additionally, cocoa inventories monitored by ICE in U.S. ports decreased to a nine-month low of 1,651,199 bags. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has reported a cut in global cocoa production estimates for 2024/25 from 4.84 million MT to 4.69 million MT, contributing to a more favorable outlook for cocoa prices despite a 1.75-year low earlier in November linked to expectations of a bumper crop in West Africa.
