On Friday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed up by 10 points (+0.12%) while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) rose by 17 points (+0.30%). This increase follows a sharp sell-off earlier in the week after prices hit a two-month high due to concerns about dry weather impacting cocoa crops in West Africa.
Cocoa prices have been supported by falling inventories, with ICE-monitored cocoa holdings in US ports dropping to a two-month low of 2,234,877 bags. Additionally, Ivory Coast cocoa exports from October 1 to August 10 have reached 1.78 million metric tons, marking a 6.6% year-over-year increase but down from previous export growth rates. Meanwhile, Nigeria is expected to see an 11% decrease in cocoa production for the 2025/26 crop year, projected to be 305,000 metric tons.
Global cocoa demand has weakened, with significant declines reported in cocoa grindings across Europe (-7.2%), Asia (-16.3%), and North America (-2.8%) in Q2. Conversely, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to rise by 8.3% next year, which may add downward pressure on prices. The International Cocoa Organization has revised the global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to 494,000 metric tons, the highest shortfall in over 60 years.
