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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa has increased by 3.75% (+218) and December ICE London cocoa #7 has risen by 3.45% (+141). This surge follows the publication of Q3 European cocoa grindings data, which showed a year-on-year decline of 4.8% to 337,353 MT, less severe than some forecasts of a 10% decline.
ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have dropped to a six-month low of 1,875,325 bags. The latest Commitment of Traders data indicates a significant increase in short positions, with a rise of 5,060 to 10,771 contracts, marking the largest short position in over three years.
Despite recent pressures on cocoa prices due to abundant supply concerns, supportive factors include increased farmer payments in Ivory Coast and Ghana, leading to boosted sales. The International Cocoa Organization revised its projection for the 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, with world cocoa production expected to decline by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.38 million metric tons.
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