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On Monday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed up +89 (+1.48%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) climbed +36 (+0.83%). Cocoa prices recovered from 1.5-week lows due to a slowdown in exports from the Ivory Coast, which shipped 411,979 MT of cocoa from October 1 to November 8, down 9% from 454,624 MT during the same period last year.
Weak global cocoa demand has raised concerns, with North American chocolate candy sales volume down over 21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7. Reports indicated a decline in cocoa grindings, with Q3 Asia grindings falling 17% year-on-year, while European grindings decreased 4.8%. Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over six decades.
Supported by lower cocoa production in Nigeria, which is projected to fall by 11% in the 2025/26 crop year, the cocoa market remains cautiously optimistic. Last week, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in the US dropped to a 7.5-month low of 1,793,757 bags, indicating supportive supply conditions amidst mixed demand signals.
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