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On October 2, 2023, cocoa prices rose, with December ICE NY cocoa closing up +93 points (+1.50%) and December ICE London cocoa up +45 points (+1.05%). This increase followed short covering after cocoa futures entered oversold territory, as funds increased their net-short positions in London cocoa by 2,935 to a total of 5,711, marking the largest short position in over three years.
ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports fell to a 5.5-month low of 1,938,055 bags. Cocoa arrivals to ports in Ghana surged to 50,440 MT in the four weeks ending September 4, 2023, compared to just 11,000 MT during the same period in 2024. The forecast for Ghana’s 2025/26 cocoa crop indicates an 8.3% rise to 650,000 MT.
Despite tighter inventories, global cocoa demand remains weak, with European Q2 cocoa grindings down 7.2% year-on-year to 331,762 MT, and Asian grindings falling 16.3% year-on-year to 176,644 MT, the lowest in eight years. The International Cocoa Organization also reported a revised global cocoa production deficit of -494,000 MT for 2023/24, indicating a declining cocoa supply outlook.
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