Cocoa prices surged on Tuesday, with July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closing up 9.83% at +373 and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) up 10.24% at +293. This spike to 1.5-week highs is attributed to fund short-covering linked to heavy rains causing flooding in the Ivory Coast, affecting farmers’ access to cocoa plantations. Additionally, concerns over a potential El Niño weather pattern are raising fears of detrimental impacts on cocoa production in West Africa.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, potentially affecting the crop. Moreover, recent reports show an expected drop in Nigerian cocoa production for the 2025/26 crop year to 305,000 MT, down 11% year-on-year. Contrastingly, Ivory Coast’s cocoa deliveries for the current marketing year (October 2025 – May 2026) reached 1.64 MMT, a 2.5% increase from last year, despite projections of decreased production for the 2025/26 season attributed to harsh weather conditions.
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