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On Tuesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed up +11 (+0.29%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed up +101 (+2.36%). This marks a slight rebound from last week’s significant lows, where NY cocoa hit a 20-month nearest-futures low. Despite this uptick, cocoa prices are still pressurized by an outlook of abundant supplies amid weak demand.
According to the Cocoa Association of Asia, Q3 Asia cocoa grindings decreased by 17% year-on-year to 183,413 MT, the lowest in nine years. Similarly, Q3 European cocoa grindings dropped by 4.8% year-on-year to 337,353 MT, the lowest for a third quarter in a decade. Conversely, North American cocoa grindings rose 3.2% year-on-year to 112,784 MT, but this was influenced by the inclusion of new reporting companies.
Recent government data indicated that Ivory Coast farmers shipped only 133,209 MT of cocoa from October 1 through October 19—down 31% from 192,804 MT during the same period last year. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years, with global production projected to decline by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.38 MMT.
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