On September 1, 2023, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) increased by 1.04% to $87, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) decreased by 0.36%. Markets saw mixed cocoa prices influenced by currency fluctuations: NY cocoa rose as the dollar index fell to a one-week low, while London cocoa faced downward pressure due to a rally in the British pound.
Data from the Ivory Coast revealed cocoa exports totaling 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to August 3, marking a 6% increase year-over-year, but down from a larger 35% increase seen last December. Concerns over dry weather affecting crop development and rising quality issues in mid-crop cocoa, with reports indicating 5-6% of beans are of poor quality, further support prices. This year’s mid-crop estimate stands at 400,000 MT, a 9% decrease from last year’s 440,000 MT.
In Nigeria, cocoa production is projected to fall 11% to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year. Meanwhile, weak chocolate demand has led to reduced sales projections from major chocolate manufacturers, contributing to a bearish outlook for cocoa prices. Global cocoa inventory levels are also high, with US ports recording a 10.75-month peak at 2,368,141 bags.
